Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 93.4%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 26, 26, 10:48 PM UTCJun 1, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Context: https://openai.com/index/building-scientific-understanding-with-academic-communities/
- I'll resolve based on the consensus of the mathematical community at market close.
- For intuition (these are not binding rules, more like, rough guidelines):
- If it's demonstrated to be incorrect before the close date, then this can resolve NO early.
- If at market close there's no particular evidence to doubt its validity, by default resolves YES.
- If there's substantial ongoing work to verify it, I will leave the market closed and wait to resolve until it doesn't seem like that work is still ongoing.