Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 50 minutes ago
LaggingJul 21, 26, 6:46 AM UTCJul 21, 31, 6:42 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Is the Jacobian conjecture true?
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
Jacobian conjecture - Wikipedia
- The Jacobian conjecture states that for every N>=1, every characteristic 0 field K and every polynomial function F:K^N->K^N, if J_F is a non-zero constant then F has a polynomial inverse G:K^N->K^N. The conjecture was recently shown to be false for all N>2, but the case N=2 is still open.
- This market resolves YES if there is a proof that the conjecture holds for N=2, and NO if there is a proof that the conjecture does not hold for N=2.
- If there is a non-constructive proof that the conjecture is false (but with no explicit counter example), it still resolves NO.
- If this problem turns out to be independent of ZFC it will resolve N/A.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.7pt4%
- September 30-0.2pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $68.2M
- 24h Vol
- $124.4K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.9M
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-2.0pt74.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-2.2pt73%
- No27%
- Total Vol
- $348K
- 24h Vol
- $1.4K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt39%
- Above 1+4.0pt18%
- Above 2-2.0pt4%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
- US solar capacity installed in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is the Jacobian conjecture true in two dimensions??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Is the Jacobian conjecture true in two dimensions? resolve?
- Is the Jacobian conjecture true in two dimensions? is scheduled to resolve on July 21, 2031.
- How is Is the Jacobian conjecture true in two dimensions? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Jacobian conjecture - Wikipedia