Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 93%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 23, 5:01 PM UTCJan 1, 01, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRules
The first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture, also called the k-tuple conjecture, gives an asymptotic formula for the number of primes p ≤ x such that p, p + a₁, p + a₂, ..., p + aₖ are all prime, for any tuple (a₁, a₂, ..., aₖ).
- For the exact formula, see: https://mathworld.wolfram.com/k-TupleConjecture.html
- [link preview]
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
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+3 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
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- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 more outcomes
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- 1-2.0pt74.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-2.2pt73%
- No27%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt39%
- Above 1+4.0pt18%
- Above 2-2.0pt4%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 93% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true? resolve?
- Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2101.
- How is Is the first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture true? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The first Hardy-Littlewood conjecture, also called the k-tuple conjecture, gives an asymptotic formula for the number of primes p ≤ x such that p, p + a₁, p + a₂, ..., p + aₖ are all prime, for any tuple (a₁, a₂, ..., aₖ).