Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 65.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 25, 9:46 PM UTCSep 1, 75, 9:26 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Are the most influential results in string theory already produced in the past, or are there bigger discoveries to come?
- This market resolves to "Yes", if the most cited paper in string theory on 2075-09-01 is already present today (2025-09-01).
- Otherwise it resolves to "No".
- Only papers reporting original results will be considered.
- Review papers are excluded.
- By trading in this market, you agree to let me be the judge for subjective matters associated with this market (e.g., whether a paper is in string theory).