Is Sam Altman right that we will see AI agents materially change the output of companies in 2025?
EconomyOne-OffAIBusiness & Corporate24d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.6%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 25, 10:01 PM UTCNov 27, 26, 5:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
In a blog post "Reflections" (https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections) Sam Altman says "We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies."
- This market will resolve yes if, by the end of 2025, either of the following are true:
- There are mass layoffs of knowledge workers which are reported to be from AI automation (reported as "mass layoffs" by the normal networks)
- TFP in the American private non-farm business sector grows by >5% as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for a reason other than that there has been a recession/recovery.
- Will resolve according to the 2025 version of (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod3.pdf) to probably be released in 2026 which is why market closes late 2026.