Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:09 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
2026 93.6%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 7, 25, 7:13 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWill an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.
- Each task corresponds to a real GitHub bug-fix; success is measured only by whether the submitted patch makes all repository tests pass.
- Reaching 95 % would imply an agent that can reliably read unfamiliar codebases, localise bugs, implement multi-file patches, and satisfy rigorous unit tests—approaching or surpassing strong human-engineer performance on day-to-day bug-fixing.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the year-bracket in which a fully automated AI system first records an average accuracy of 95 % or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark.
- Verification – The claim must be confirmed by either