Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:28 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 94.5%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 4:20 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If SWE-bench verified is renamed or significantly updated, this market will resolve NO even if Claude Sonnet 5 achieves 85% on the renamed/updated version.
- The market is specifically about the benchmark called "SWE-bench verified" as it exists at market creation.
