In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark??

Manifold Markets prices 2026 at 97.6% as of October 26, 2026.

When does In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? resolve?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: GPQA is a graduate-level, 448-item multiple-choice benchmark covering biology, chemistry and physics; it was designed to be “Google-proof,” defeating web-search tricks and challenging even PhD holders ― human experts average ≈ 65% accuracy, while skilled non-experts manage only 34%.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+11.0pt94%
• December 15,+9.5pt91%
• November 30,+29.0pt90%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.9M

24h Vol

$353.7K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+14.0pt

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+19.0pt99.5%
• America First+64.0pt99.5%
• American Dream+65.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.5pt29.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.8pt23.5%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.6pt16.7%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.9pt60%
• Gemini30.1%
• ChatGPT-0.3pt6.8%

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+5.0pt57.6%
• Google-3.0pt33.3%
• OpenAI+0.3pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

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