If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
One-OffUS PoliticsElectionPolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.4%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 24, 10:06 PM UTCNov 11, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, I will conduct a simple YES/NO poll on Manifold titled "Has Trump performed better than you expected as President?" I will post this poll on or around November 3rd, 2026.
- If after one week, >50% of the votes are YES, this market will resolve YES.
- If not, this market resolves NO.
- If Trump is not elected President, this market resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.
- Companion market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/mint/if-biden-wins-will-manifold-users-v)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms? resolve?
- If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2026.
- How is If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, I will conduct a simple YES/NO poll on Manifold titled "Has Trump performed better than you expected as President?" I will post this poll on or around November 3rd, 2026.