If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
One-OffUS PoliticsPoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
156
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 10, 24, 12:19 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027.
- Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.
- If Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A. May differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements.
- See here for the market on if Biden wins:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-wins-will-she-appoint-ano)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027? resolve?
- If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027.