If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMar 11, 24, 5:35 AM UTCFeb 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
- For example, an unemployment rate of 3.9% would result in a "39%" resolution on this question, and so on.
- An unemployment rate of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
- I will use BLS's seasonally-adjusted civilian unemployment rate, as here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm# I'll use the last published datapoint for 2026.
- (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
