If the US unemployment reaches 20% will it reach 80% within 2 years? (AI take-off)
EconomyCustomAIMacro & Economy13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.9%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 25, 1:52 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This is a question related to fast(hard) or slow(soft) AGI takeoff as well as the chance of economic disasters causing unemployment above 20%.
- The question will be resolved based on the U-3 unemployment rate.
- In the case of fast or semi-fast AI takeoff I would assume that this would cause unemployment to shoot up rapidly reaching 80% within 2 years.
- Note that if there is some economic disaster (similar to COVID) which leads to a U-3 rate above 20% before AI take-off (and the U-3 rate does not grow to 80% within 2 years) this question will resolve NO, so take that into account in your predictions.
- The question resolves YES if the U-3 unemployment rate reaches 80% within 2 years of it reaching 20% for the FIRST time.
- If the U-3 rate reaches 20% and does not cross 80% within 2 years the question will resolve NO.
