If Democrats win the House in 2026, will Trump veto at least 5 bills in 2027?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 71.9%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:13 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Condition: Democrats win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Democratic Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party).
- If Republicans or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if Donald Trump vetoes five or more bills or joint resolutions during calendar year 2027, counting regular and pocket vetoes as listed in the U.S. Senate's record of presidential vetoes.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Republicans keep the House.
- Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the House changes.
