Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: He will stay in until the Republican primary but lose it. (94.5%)
Resolved: Aug 12, 2026, 3:53 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastHe will stay in until the Republican primary but lose it. 94.5%+50.4ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+72.9 pts
Market data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleDec 13, 25, 6:21 PMAug 12, 26, 3:53 AM
Probability Timeline
He will drop out before the Republican endorsement convention.0.3%
He will drop out after the Republican endorsement convention but before the primary.0.9%
He will stay in until the Republican primary but lose it.94.5%
He will win the Republican primary but drop out before the general election.0.4%
He will be nominated winning the Republican primary but lose the general election.3.1%
He will remain in the race through all stages and win the general election.0.2%
Other0.7%
94.5%
3.1%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
Rules
#### Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with primary elections on August 11, 2026.
- Precinct caucuses are scheduled for February 3, 2026, and the Republican endorsement convention is expected in May, with endorsements occurring in March and early April.
- This market resolves based on the furthest stage Lindell's campaign reaches before ending:
- Drops out before endorsement convention: Campaign ends before or during the February-May convention process
- Drops out after endorsement convention but before primary: Campaign ends after the May convention but before August 11 primary
