This market resolved: Resigns (99%)
Resolved: Aug 3, 2026, 6:19 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastResigns 99%+1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
67
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 days ago
StaleJan 19, 26, 4:38 AMAug 3, 26, 6:19 PM
Probability Timeline
Loses general election1.5%
Loses Labour leadership challenge0.4%
Resigns99%
Other1.2%
99%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
Rules
Resolves to the means by which Keir Starmer loses power as the UK’s Prime Minister.
- “Resigns” captures scenarios where Starmer voluntarily ceases to be PM without legal obligation, even if there is strong pressure (eg resignation following a non-binding no confidence vote or in the middle of a leadership challenge both count for “resigns”).
- It also includes resignation for personal reasons like health.
- “Other” captures any scenario not listed, including death, incapacitation, criminal disqualification or expulsion by the monarch.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How will Keir Starmer leave office??
- Manifold Markets prices Resigns at 99% as of August 4, 2026.
- When does How will Keir Starmer leave office? resolve?
- How will Keir Starmer leave office? is scheduled to resolve on August 3, 2026.
- How is How will Keir Starmer leave office? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the means by which Keir Starmer loses power as the UK’s Prime Minister.