Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore December 2026 85.2%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 20, 26, 5:45 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'GLM 5.6' or 'GLM 5.5-Turbo', will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @2CqdhIO9cU (this market)
