Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore December 2026 80%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 5:45 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
GLM 5.4+ (Z.ai) release date
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KalshiRules
Minor changes to the name, such as 'GLM 5.6' or 'GLM 5.5-Turbo', will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @2CqdhIO9cU (this market)
Open markets
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date?
- Manifold Markets prices Before December 2026 at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date resolve?
- GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Minor changes to the name, such as 'GLM 5.6' or 'GLM 5.5-Turbo', will count for the purpose of this market.