Current community forecast
Before 2027-01-01 96.3%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+8.3 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 26, 2:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
The '+' means any version at or above 5.4 counts: if Z.ai skips 5.4 and releases GLM 5.5 or GLM 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GLM 5.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...? · October 31 27%
