Current community forecast
Before 2027-02-01 87.8%+37.8ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+37.8 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 26, 10:02 PM UTCFeb 16, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash output token price (paid tier) get in 2026?
KalshiNext Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on?
PolymarketNext Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketHow low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price get in 2026?
KalshiWill Google release a model officially named "Gemini 4 Flash" by November 13, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
The '+' means any version at or above 4 counts: a Gemini 4.x Flash or Gemini 5 Flash also counts for the purpose of this market.
- Google may not use the 'Flash' name for this generation: any Gemini 4-or-later model generally agreed to be smaller than Gemini 4 Argon and Gemini 4 Carbon counts as well, whatever it is called.
- Flash-Lite-tier releases do not resolve this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.