Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 52.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 9, 25, 11:41 AM UTCJun 2, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31?
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KalshiRules
Resolves to NO if Doug Ford does not run for Premier or is no longer part of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario.
- The next provincial election has not been called yet, so deadline will be adjusted accordingly.
- Making this question early because friends and I disagree.
- They think the electorate wants change after a a leader has had a long tenure and that Ford won mostly due to fears around Trump.
- I think Ontario genuinely likes Ford and distrusts the other parties.
- Furthermore, I think its unlikely for the other parties to find a charismatic/compelling leader.