Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 9, 25, 11:41 AM UTCJun 2, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves to NO if Doug Ford does not run for Premier or is no longer part of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario.
- The next provincial election has not been called yet, so deadline will be adjusted accordingly.
- Making this question early because friends and I disagree.
- They think the electorate wants change after a a leader has had a long tenure and that Ford won mostly due to fears around Trump.
- I think Ontario genuinely likes Ford and distrusts the other parties.
- Furthermore, I think its unlikely for the other parties to find a charismatic/compelling leader.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
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- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
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+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
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- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
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- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Doug Ford and PC Party win next Ontario election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Doug Ford and PC Party win next Ontario election? resolve?
- Doug Ford and PC Party win next Ontario election? is scheduled to resolve on June 2, 2030.
- How is Doug Ford and PC Party win next Ontario election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to NO if Doug Ford does not run for Premier or is no longer part of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario.