Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 53.5%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 12, 26, 4:29 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Trump pardons in 2026
FutuurWill Barron Trump ever be elected President?
Manifold MarketsWill Barron Trump and Ivanka Trump be President?
Manifold MarketsWill Barron Trump graduate from NYU on time or earlier?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiRules
Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumppardons/who-will-trump-pardon/kxtrumppardons-29jan21
- If Barron Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from White House and New York Times.
- (Identical market to: source market)
