Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)
One-OffScienceHealth & Medicine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Never or after 1/1/2030 82.7%Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 2:26 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript
- This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029.
- The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication.
- Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable.
- If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter.
- Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies.
