Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAsia 34.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 8, 26, 10:30 PM UTCJan 31, 60, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?
Kalshiwill the gambia merge with senegal by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine regain control of the whole of Kherson region by 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
When one of the following happens next, where will it happen?
- • Two countries merge
- • One country splits into 2 or more countries.
- • A country changes its name.
- Complete invasion of a country by a neighbour doesn't count as merging.
- The 6 regions to choose from don't geographically overlap.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Country in what region will merge, split, or name change first??
- Manifold Markets prices Asia at 35% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Country in what region will merge, split, or name change first? resolve?
- Country in what region will merge, split, or name change first? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2060.
- How is Country in what region will merge, split, or name change first? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: When one of the following happens next, where will it happen?