Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Leader of 6 outcomes
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 9, 24, 9:21 PM UTCMar 31, 29, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
WIll resolve based on the Electoral Deomcracy Index from our world in data which is based on the V-Dem report.
- 2023 the US got 0.85.
- Will resolve to NA if trump is not elected in 2024 (all mana returned).
- Otherwise, will resolve once the data for 2028 is released (probably march 2029).
- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&time=1975..latest&showSelectionOnlyInTable=1&country=~USA&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index
- For reference the following indexes were given in 2023.
