Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5?
EconomyGeopoliticsOne-OffEurope1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.2%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 25, 1:28 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 2:21 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If a NATO country is invaded, will 80% (according to GDP) of the alliance support the attacked party through armed force?
- Armed force being combat equipment (guns, drones, jets, ships, etc) operated by and in the name of the supporting NATO member (not the attacked one)
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629.4K
- 24h Vol
- $36K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.5K
- 24h Vol
- $12.5K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No81%
- Yes-6.0pt19%
- Total Vol
- $360.5K
- 24h Vol
- $8.5K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $711.9K
- 24h Vol
- $8K
- Recession this year?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5? resolve?
- Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Conditional on a NATO country being invaded, will >80% of NATO honor Article 5? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If a NATO country is invaded, will 80% (according to GDP) of the alliance support the attacked party through armed force?