Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 12:52 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida general election for Governor in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Byron Donalds will be the GOP nominee for governor of Florida" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
Open markets
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
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+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
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- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
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+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor? resolve?
- Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Byron Donalds is GOP nominee for Florida governor? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.