Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2050 or earlier 19.7%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
118
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 24, 2:37 PM UTCJan 31, 00, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
This market resolves each option as NO if the date passes and Kenshin9000 (or anyone) has not defeated stockfish with an LLM-based chess engine.
- All remaining options resolve YES once an LLM-based engine defeats stockfish (or top engine).
- My resolution criteria are more strict than Mira’s:
- The LLM engine must have higher ELO than the latest stockfish (or whatever the top engine is at resolution time) at blitz timings with 99.9% confidence and be reproduced by 3+ people.
- The LLM engine must not use another chess engine at runtime.
- For the purposes of this market, Large Language Models are 100M+ parameter general-purpose generative text models.
