Brazil 2026 Election: Brazil average gasoline price ≥ R$6.50/L on Oct 25, 2026 (Election Day 2nd round)?
InflationPoliticsDailyElectionLatin AmericaCommodities1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.2%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 49 minutes ago
LaggingMar 4, 26, 4:59 PM UTCOct 25, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Resolves YES if the value labeled “Preço Médio do Brasil” on Petrobras’ gasoline page is ≥ R$ 6.50 per liter at 23:59 (Brasília time) on Oct 25, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Source: Petrobras price portal - Preço Médio do Brasil: https://precos.petrobras.com.br/sele%C3%A7%C3%A3o-de-estados-gasolina
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $103.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.1K
- 24h Vol
- $29.3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.7K
- 24h Vol
- $25.6K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-10.3pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+7.7pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.3pt3.1%
+5 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation US - Annual
- 3.4%+0.5pt42.1%
- 3.3%-2.0pt29.9%
- 3.5%-0.5pt13.1%
+9 more outcomes
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Egg prices up in August?
- U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil 2026 Election: Brazil average gasoline price ≥ R$6.50/L on Oct 25, 2026 (Election Day 2nd round)??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 86% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Brazil 2026 Election: Brazil average gasoline price ≥ R$6.50/L on Oct 25, 2026 (Election Day 2nd round)? resolve?
- Brazil 2026 Election: Brazil average gasoline price ≥ R$6.50/L on Oct 25, 2026 (Election Day 2nd round)? is scheduled to resolve on October 25, 2026.
- How is Brazil 2026 Election: Brazil average gasoline price ≥ R$6.50/L on Oct 25, 2026 (Election Day 2nd round)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the value labeled “Preço Médio do Brasil” on Petrobras’ gasoline page is ≥ R$ 6.50 per liter at 23:59 (Brasília time) on Oct 25, 2026.