Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.7%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 3:32 PM UTCApr 8, 27, 3:31 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if at least one federal Member of Parliament changes party affiliation while in office between April 7, 2026 and April 7, 2027.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the House of Commons or confirmed reporting from major Canadian news outlets (CBC, CTV, Globe and Mail, National Post).
- The MP must formally join a different party caucus or sit as an independent after leaving their original party.
- The most recent floor crosser is Gladu.
- Will anyone else switch parties in the next year?