Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 66.4%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 24, 26, 11:33 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketNH-01 Democratic nominee?
KalshiRules
This market is a derivative combining the following other markets, and resolves directly on the basis of their individual resolutions (note that even if there is a discrepancy where the resolved party nominee is replaced, I will still use these markets):
- [markets]The market will only resolve N/A if one of the underlying markets does.
- The "Other" option accounts for all combinations not currently listed.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2028 POTUS Party nominees and winner?
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 66% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does 2028 POTUS Party nominees and winner resolve?
- 2028 POTUS Party nominees and winner is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is 2028 POTUS Party nominees and winner settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is a derivative combining the following other markets, and resolves directly on the basis of their individual resolutions (note that even if there is a discrepancy where the resolved party nominee is replaced, I will still use these markets):