Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Dec 21, 25, 9:16 AM UTCNov 27, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiWill an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsJapan recession in 2026?
PolymarketRules
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Sources from VoteHub, U.S. House of Representatives, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Resolves the same as Kalshi:
- https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpbearcasecombo/trumps-year-bear-nightmare-case/kxtrumpbearcasecombo-27dec
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt53%
- No change-2.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $105.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes-1.0pt23%
- Total Vol
- $366K
- 24h Vol
- $12.7K
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
KALSHICPI in September
- Above -0.3%+1.0pt98%
- Above -0.4%97%
- Above -0.2%+1.0pt96%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $88.4K
- 24h Vol
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US recession by end of 2026?
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2026 a nightmare year for Trump??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does 2026 a nightmare year for Trump? resolve?
- 2026 a nightmare year for Trump? is scheduled to resolve on November 27, 2026.
- How is 2026 a nightmare year for Trump? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.