2026 a nightmare year for Trump?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for 2026 a nightmare year for Trump??

Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of October 29, 2026.

When does 2026 a nightmare year for Trump? resolve?

2026 a nightmare year for Trump? is scheduled to resolve on November 27, 2026.

How is 2026 a nightmare year for Trump? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%
• Above 3.2%98.5%

+18 more outcomes

Total Vol

$657.6K

24h Vol

$28.9K

KALSHI

Recession in 2027?

• No80.5%
• Yes-2.0pt19.5%

Total Vol

$790.7K

24h Vol

$19.1K

KALSHI

US real GDP growth in 2026?

• 2.1% to 2.5%+9.4pt78.7%
• 1.6% to 2.0%-3.0pt11.3%
• 2.6% to 3.0%+2.0pt

POLYMARKET

US recession by end of 2026?

• No-1.5pt93%
• Yes+1.5pt7%

Total Vol

$2.4M

24h Vol

$11.3K

KALSHI

Core CPI in October

• Above 0.0%93.5%
• Above 0.1%+5.0pt81%
• Above 0.2%44.5%

POLYMARKET

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

• 1.0-2.0%+24.0pt65.6%
• 0-1.0%-19.6pt32.3%
• 6.0-7.0%-1.6pt1%

+6 more outcomes

• CPI YoY in December
• CPI in October
• Core CPI YoY in December
• Core CPI in November
• CPI in December
• Core CPI YoY in November
• Unemployment in October
• US recession by end of 2027?
• Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
• October Unemployment Rate
• 2026: Trump's bad year?
• Core CPI in December