KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 35% 78%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200.9
Liquidity
$200.9
Low liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 11:00 PM UTCSep 20, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
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PolymarketMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Over/Under 35%?
PolymarketCDU above 5% in 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election is 31% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
- The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certified/official results; unofficial results or media declarations may be used only as those provisions allow.
- If voting is cancelled, suspended, or postponed before it concludes, or no results (certified or unofficial as reported by the Source Agencies) are available by expiration, resolve No, subject to those provisions.
- If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, use the most recent certified percentage.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election: AfD vote share??
- Kalshi prices At least 35% at 78% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election: AfD vote share? resolve?
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election: AfD vote share? is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2027.
- How is Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election: AfD vote share? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election is 31% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.