KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 50% · —
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Stored price
At least 56% 57%Market line of 9 lines
At least 56% 57%Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$1K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 50%Spread
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Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Sep 11, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 50%
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Rules
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Derek Tran ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 50%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 52%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 54%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 54% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 56%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 58%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 58% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 60%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 60% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 62%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 62% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 64%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 64% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 66%
- If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Derek Tran in the 2026 CA-45 House election is 66% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
