KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
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Data quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Aug 28, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before 2027 15%
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 34 minutes ago
Feb 12, 26, 1:00 AMJul 1, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
15%
5%
Rules
If the United States submits a notice of withdrawal from the USMCA before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the United States submits a notice of withdrawal from the USMCA before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHIMassachusetts Democratic Senate nominee?
- Ed Markey+0.9pt99%
- Seth Moulton-1.3pt1%
- Ayanna Pressley0%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
- 24h Vol
- $807.9K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.3pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+0.2pt11%
- Jon Ossoff11%
+49 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt62%
- October 31+3.0pt40%
- September 30+1.0pt21%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+2.9pt52%
- Marco Rubio+1.3pt18%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Total Vol
- $63.7M
- 24h Vol
- $328.3K
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.1pt20%
- Jon Ossoff-0.1pt16%
- Gavin Newsom15%
+48 more outcomes
- 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Michigan Senate winner?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Trump out as President before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump try to leave the USMCA??
- Kalshi prices Before 2027 at 15% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will Trump try to leave the USMCA? resolve?
- Will Trump try to leave the USMCA? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2026.
- How is Will Trump try to leave the USMCA? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States submits a notice of withdrawal from the USMCA before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.