KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republican Party 80.6%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.6K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
78.0% / 83.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 11, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the the named outcome wins the Texas House of Representatives in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Texas House of Representatives
- If both parties are tied, then the market resolves to No.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
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- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas House of Representatives winner?
- Kalshi prices Republican Party at 81% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Texas House of Representatives winner resolve?
- Texas House of Representatives winner is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Texas House of Representatives winner settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the the named outcome wins the Texas House of Representatives in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.