KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Kentucky (94%)
Resolved: Oct 11, 2026, 1:43 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 5:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Wisconsin45%
South Carolina98%
Kansas98%
Georgia99%
North Carolina97%
Arizona99%
Michigan97%
Pennsylvania55%
New Hampshire22%
Mississippi23%
GeorgiaLost
ArizonaLost
NevadaLost
South CarolinaLost
KansasLost
North CarolinaLost
MichiganLost
KentuckyWon
PennsylvaniaLost
WisconsinLost
MississippiLost
New HampshireLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Pennsylvania on or after Oct 1, 2026 and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:official government sources of the stateofficial representatives or offices of Donald TrumpThe New York Timesthe Associated PressReutersPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalCNNFox NewsMSNBCCNBCThe Guardianlocal news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the stateofficial social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives
- The following do NOT constitute a visit:
- Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period
- For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one.
- Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit.
- Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.