KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 76%-1.0pt
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$120
Liquidity
$3.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
76.0% / 78.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 12:13 AM UTCOct 26, 26, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiBrazilian presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent (1st Round)
KalshiRules
If Donald Trump publicly endorses Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Donald Trump
- An "endorsement" requires: A clear, affirmative statement of support for candidate's election The statement must be public (not private communications) The endorsement must specifically reference the 2026 Brazilian presidential election or be clearly in context of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election The endorsement must come directly from Donald Trump or through official channels
- The following scenarios would resolve to YES: Donald Trump states "I endorse candidate for [office]" Donald Trump states "I support candidate" with clear reference to the 2026 Brazilian presidential election Donald Trump states "I'm voting for candidate" publicly Donald Trump states "candidate has my full support" for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election Donald Trump appears at campaign events specifically to endorse Donald Trump releases official endorsement through their organization Donald Trump allows their name/image to be used in candidate's campaign materials
- Statements of obvious sarcasm (or which are immediately followed by clarifications that Donald Trump is joking) are NOT encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- The Contract shall resolve immediately upon confirmation of the first qualifying endorsement in the specified race.
- If multiple candidates are listed for a listed race and exactly one is endorsed, that candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at $1.00 and all other named-candidate strikes resolve "No." If multiple are endorsed, each endorsed candidate's strike resolves "Yes" at a value of ($1.00 / N) rounded down to the nearest $0.01.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
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- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro? resolve?
- Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro? is scheduled to resolve on October 26, 2026.
- How is Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Donald Trump publicly endorses Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.