What will the tariff rate on Brazilian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
Trade PolicyOne-OffChinaLatin AmericaEurope5mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current implied probability10% or above 0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
77.0% / 84.0%
Spread
9.1%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jul 23, 26, 5:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
10% or above0%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the general import tariff rate on imports from Brazil into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date.
- This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country.
- Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify.
- The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions.
- If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.