KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Richard Neal, ≥5% 90.8%Leader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$12.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Aug 27, 26, 7:45 PM UTCSep 1, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
If the margin of victory for Richard Neal in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Richard Neal minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Richard Neal if Richard Neal wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Richard Neal loses.
- If Richard Neal wins, the margin will be positive; if Richard Neal loses, the margin will be negative; if Richard Neal ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Richard Neal runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal)?
- Kalshi prices Richard Neal, ≥5% at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) resolve?
- MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) is scheduled to resolve on September 1, 2027.
- How is MA-01 Democratic primary margin of victory? (Richard Neal) settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the margin of victory for Richard Neal in the 2026 MA-01 Democratic primary is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.