North Carolina early voters: party registration margin?
17.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection8d
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
D+8 or more · —
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Stored price
D+8 or more 79%Leader of 8 outcomes
D+8 or more 79%Market quality
25 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$212
Open interest
$922.8
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
D+8 or moreSpread
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Market data
Updated 52 minutes ago
LaggingSep 24, 26, 9:00 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · D+8 or more
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KalshiRules
If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:University of Florida Election Lab
- The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column of the "Total Voted by Party Registration" table on the North Carolina page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. Total Voted includes in-person early votes and returned mail ballots. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the voteddem, votedrep and voted_none values for North Carolina in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
Rules for each outcome
- D+8 or more
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 8 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+6 to D+7.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 6 and 7.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+2 to D+3.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 2 and 3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+4 to D+5.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 4 and 5.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+4 or more
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is below -3.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+2 to R+3.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between -3.9 and -2 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- R+0.1 to R+1.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between -1.9 and -0.1 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+0 to D+1.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of North Carolina early votes by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 0 and 1.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
