KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Democrats, 17+ pts 0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
9.8 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 1, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 51st District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for California's 51st District margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Democrats, 17+ pts at 0% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does California's 51st District margin of victory resolve?
- California's 51st District margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is California's 51st District margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 51st District by 17 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.