KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
Before Nov 1, 2026 1%
Before Nov 1, 2026 1%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$4.9K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
- / 100.0%
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 9:28 PM UTCSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Before Nov 1, 20261%
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Sylvia LukeThe Wall Street JournalBloomberg NewsThe Washington Postthe Associated PressFox NewsReutersOffice of the Lieutenant Governor of HawaiiCNNthe New York TimesPolitico
- Sylvia Luke must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Sep 1, 2026
- If Sylvia Luke leaves as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If Sylvia Luke leaves as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.