KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: At least 3%
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 5:10 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
At least 3%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 5:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
At least 3%96%
At least 5%93%
At least 12%1%
At least 9%1%
At least 20%5%
At least 25%0%
At least 15%1%
At least 7%1%
At least 12%Lost
At least 15%Lost
At least 9%Lost
At least 7%Lost
At least 3%Won
At least 5%Lost
At least 20%Lost
At least 25%Lost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Reform UK in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 3% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:London Borough of Camden
- The percentage is (votes received by the party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, use certified/official results; qualifying unofficial results may be used only under that provision.
- Write-in votes in the result are included.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- If multiple rounds occur, use the specified round or first round if none is specified.
