KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 8, 2026, 10:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above $215,000 0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
36 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 29, 26, 9:30 PM UTCMay 21, 27, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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ForecastExRules
If the the median first-year associate base salary for the largest law-firm-size category in the 2027 U.S. Associate Salary Survey is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:National Association for Law Placement
- The Underlying is the national median first-year associate base salary reported for the largest law-firm-size category in NALP’s 2027 U.S. Associate Salary Survey. “Largest law-firm-size category” means the category in NALP’s national firm-size breakdown with the highest minimum number of lawyers.
- For example, the largest category in the 2025 survey was firms with more than 700 lawyers.
- If NALP changes its firm-size categories in the 2027 survey, the largest category reported by NALP will be used.
- Resolution will use base salary only.
- Bonuses, benefits, summer-associate compensation, clerkship bonuses, total compensation, and inflation adjustments will not be considered.
Open markets
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $629K
- 24h Vol
- $35.7K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $388.5K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,000-1.0pt44%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $90.3K
- 24h Vol
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
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- August Inflation US - Annual
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- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
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- State of the economy at the end of 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Median Big Law starting salary in 2027?
- Kalshi prices Above $215,000 at 0% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Median Big Law starting salary in 2027 resolve?
- Median Big Law starting salary in 2027 is scheduled to resolve on May 21, 2027.
- How is Median Big Law starting salary in 2027 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the the median first-year associate base salary for the largest law-firm-size category in the 2027 U.S. Associate Salary Survey is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.