Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
More than 150% of 2022 21.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
More than 150% of 2022 21.2%Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 3, 23, 7:34 PM UTCJul 1, 28, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will be resolved according to The Clear Fund's (aka GiveWell) audited financial statements - currently at their "Official Records" page.
- The Program salary expenses for 2022 were 5.119kk - see archived file for 2022, page 7 of the original numbering, or 9 of the pdf, 1st column.
- I'll adjust by inflation using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (e.g., using this calculator), or any other index officially adopted as the main official inflation index in the U.S. by the resolution date.
- Note that, if GiveWell just ceases for some reason before the resolution date, I'll consider that they'll spend $0 in 2027, and resolve the question early as "the named outcome".
- If it merges with some other organization of a significant size (>10% of its 2022 budget), this will make the comparison difficult, so I'll N/A the question early.
- I'll also N/A it if they change their costs breakdown in such a way that I can no longer find a comparable budget line for program salaries.
