GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Democratic Party 90.2%Vig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7.9K
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownBid / Ask
87.0% / 88.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 23, 25, 4:08 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Party will win the House popular vote in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the House in the 2026 election?
PredictItDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRules
Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026?
- This contract resolves based on whether the the named outcome controls the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
- Control is defined as holding the most seats in the House based on final, official results.
- A majority consists of at least 218 seats.
- If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government by electing the Speaker of the House.
- Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party.
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Democratic Party is 91%. Quotes span about 2 percentage points between the widest venues. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Democratic Party 91% · 3 venues · 2 pt venue spread
- Also available on PredictIt — Which party will win the House in the 2026 election? · Democratic 88%
- Also available on Polymarket — Which party will win the House in 2026? · Democratic Party 92%
- Also available on Limitless — Which party will win the House in 2026? · Democratic Party 93%
- Also available on Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. House? · Democratic Party 91%
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+33.0pt49.5%
- Nicolás Maduro-34.1pt49.5%
- No Head of State1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20-1.6pt96%
- September 25-7.5pt84%
- September 30-3.0pt78%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.2pt9.9%
- Total Vol
- $33.5M
- 24h Vol
- $712.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep59.6%
- D-House, R-Senate29.3%
- Republicans sweep-1.3pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
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- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which party will win the U.S. House??
- Gemini prices Democratic Party at 90% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Which party will win the U.S. House? resolve?
- Which party will win the U.S. House? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Which party will win the U.S. House? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026?
- Where else is Which party will win the U.S. House? listed?
- The same question is also listed on PredictIt, Polymarket, Limitless, Kalshi.