GeminiLimited verified dataCurrent implied probabilityBefore January 01, 2027 50.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
49.0% / 52.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Apr 8, 26, 7:47 PMJan 2, 27, 4:00 AM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before January 01, 202751%
Compare venues· Before January 01, 2027
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall83% match · auto | High | 44% | — | $1.8K | $187.4K | 20 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis pageMost active | Medium | 51% | — | $2.3K | $0 | 20 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
1.0 pts5mo
-1.0pt44%
+4.5pt16%
+0.5pt13%
+4 more outcomes
78 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$140.5K
24h Vol$1.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before contract date, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before contract date, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.