GeminiVerified resolution dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability3.6 to 4.0 98%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Mar 5, 26, 4:35 PMFeb 28, 27, 1:29 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
3.6 to 4.098%
Compare venues· 1.6% to 2.0%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall87% match · auto | High | 27% | 0pt | $22.5K | $202K | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 98% | +71pt | $0 | $0 | 10 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
US real GDP growth in 2026?
0.9 pts7mo
+0.2pt25.2%
+0.1pt22.4%
+3.0pt16.8%
+11 more outcomes
82 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$296.7K
24h Vol$22.5K
KALSHIRules
US GDP Growth in 2026?
- If GDP growth in 2026 is between 3.6 to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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$2.8KYes: 42%KALSHI
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Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2027?
$500Yes: 2.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS[Metaculus] Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?
$450Yes: 16.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Rules
US GDP Growth in 2026?
- If GDP growth in 2026 is between 3.6 to 4.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- This market is mutually exclusive.
- Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes.