GeminiKYC requiredVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Sep 13, 2026, 5:58 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above 6% 4.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadTraders
0
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Feb 25, 26, 3:35 AM UTCJan 8, 27, 1:30 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- If any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is above 6%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is above 7%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — How high will unemployment get in 2026? · Above 4.5% 16%
Open markets
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $140.1M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6M
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $11K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -9.0% of GDP-6.0pt92%
- Above -8.5% of GDP-8.0pt85%
- Above -8.0% of GDP65%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.6K
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt90%
- Above -5.0% of GDP+2.0pt83%
- Above -4.5% of GDP65%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $50.1K
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No80%
- Yes-2.0pt20%
- Total Vol
- $401.5K
- 24h Vol
- $7.6K
KALSHIWisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 447,500 jobs96%
- Above 450,000 jobs+1.0pt95%
- Above 452,500 jobs+9.0pt93%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.9K
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- GDP growth in 2026
- US real GDP growth in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in September 2026?
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
- US economic state at the end of 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will unemployment get in 2026??
- Gemini prices Above 6% at 5% as of September 13, 2026.
- When does How high will unemployment get in 2026? resolve?
- How high will unemployment get in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 8, 2027.
- How is How high will unemployment get in 2026? settled?
- Gemini settles this market as follows: How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- Where else is How high will unemployment get in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.