GeminiLimited verified dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 2:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probabilityAbove 10% 93%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Feb 25, 26, 3:35 AMJan 8, 27, 1:30 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Above 10%93%
Compare venues· Above 5%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall100% match · auto | Low | 10% | 0pt | $0 | $288.2K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| GeminiThis page | Low | 40% | +30pt | $0 | $0 | 19 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
5mo
35.5%
13.7%
8.1%
+11 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$697.4K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIRules
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- If any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Rules
How high will unemployment get in 2026?
- If any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No.
- Outcome verified from Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
- If any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes.