Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 4.5% in December 2026?

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 4.5% in December 2026??

ForecastEx prices No at 86% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 4.5% in December 2026? resolve?

Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 4.5% in December 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 13, 2027.

How is Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 4.5% in December 2026? settled?

ForecastEx settles this market as follows: US Core CPI December 2026.

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POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

• 2 (50 bps)-6.5pt72%
• 1 (25 bps)+7.0pt28%
• 3 (75 bps)-0.1pt0%

+3 more outcomes

Total Vol

$1.4M

24h Vol

$83.4K

POLYMARKET

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

• Below 4.9%+11.5pt86%
• Below 4.8%+13.5pt72%
• Below 4.7%+0.5pt32%

+15 more outcomes

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%
• Above 3.2%98.5%

POLYMARKET

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes-3.0pt73.3%
• No+3.0pt26.7%

Total Vol

$1.2M

24h Vol

$24K

KALSHI

CPI YoY in December

• Above 3.0%96.5%
• Above 3.1%-1.0pt94.5%
• Above 3.3%94.5%

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

• Pause-Hike-Pause-0.5pt58.3%
• Pause-Pause-Hike+3.0pt15.5%
• Pause-Pause-Pause+9.5pt15.5%

+6 more outcomes

• How high will inflation get in 2026?
• CPI in October
• Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
• Core CPI in October
• Core CPI YoY in December
• Core CPI in November
• CPI in December
• Canada Annual Inflation 2026
• Core CPI YoY in November
• Core CPI YoY - October 2026
• CPI in November
• How high will inflation get this year?