Health & Medicine | Prognosemärkte

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

0.1%5Mon

Nein

97%

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen17 Mio. $

24h-Volumen3691,4 $

POLYMARKET

New pandemic in 2026?

5Mon

Nein

94%

CoinRithm-Referenz5%· ±2 Pkt.

73 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen921.423 $

24h-Volumen7089,3 $

POLYMARKET

Measles cases in 2026?

4.0%5Mon

Above 1500

99%

Above 1750

99%

Above 2000

99%

+5 weitere Ergebnisse

91 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen816.363,8 $

24h-Volumen2896,9 $

KALSHI

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

0.1%5Mon

Nein

96%

CoinRithm-Referenz4%· ±1 Pkt.

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen669.291,5 $

24h-Volumen1888,6 $

POLYMARKET

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%5Mon

Uganda

99%

South Sudan

+1.0%54%

Burundi

+1.0%30%

+14 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzUganda99%· ±1 Pkt.

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen325.708,2 $

24h-Volumen2728,3 $

KALSHI

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Nein

74.3%

25.7%

Community-Prognose138 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

3.0%1Mon

Before 2027

-2.0%68%

Before November

55%

Before September

-3.0%24%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

80 • Hohe QualitätMittlerer SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen70.762,4 $

24h-Volumen1510 $

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.3%5Mon

Nein

96%

-0.3%4%

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen1,6 Mio. $

24h-Volumen209 $

KALSHI

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

1.5%5Mon

↑500

+0.1%100%

↑1k

+0.1%100%

↑2k

+0.2%100%

+7 weitere Ergebnisse

79 • Hohe QualitätEnger SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen7,8 Mio. $

24h-Volumen589,3 $

POLYMARKET

Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2

37.0%1Mon

Above 2.62 million

98%

Above 2.64 million

97%

Above 2.66 million

96%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

64 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen66.346,4 $

24h-Volumen333 $

KALSHI

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

13J

Nein

75%

25%

Community-Prognose2.217 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

Nein

94%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

2.0%5Mon

Nein

58%

+2.0%42%

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen354.620,3 $

24h-Volumen229,3 $

KALSHI

Will I live to be 200 years old?

175J

Nein

88.1%

11.9%

Community-Prognose75 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

3.0%5Mon

Above 0

-5.0%25%

Above 1

13%

Above 2

13%

+3 weitere Ergebnisse

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen115.068,8 $

24h-Volumen118,7 $

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

1.0%11Mon

Before Jul 1, 2028

95%

Before Jan 1, 2028

+1.0%86%

Before Jan 1, 2029

85%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen25.253,5 $

24h-Volumen318 $

KALSHI

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

2.0%5Mon

Uganda

+37.5%100%

South Sudan

+1.5%63%

Ethiopia

53%

+10 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzUganda99%· ±1 Pkt.

52 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen29.707,3 $

24h-Volumen1511,1 $

POLYMARKET

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Nein

81.7%

18.3%

Community-Prognose73 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?

3.0%5Mon

Above 4k

96%

Above 6k

94%

Above 8k

94%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

68 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen16.051,7 $

24h-Volumen478,6 $

KALSHI

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Doesn’t work at all and never will

+11.7%62%

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

30%

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

-8.9%29.5%

+4 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose113 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

5Mon

Nein

86.5%

13.5%

Community-Prognose15 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

96.5%-97.49%

+2.5%25.7%

Below 94%

-2.5%22.8%

95.5%-96.49%

-2.4%22.2%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose7 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who will Trump announce as next FDA commissioner?

0.1%5Mon

No announcement by December 31

-9.2%16%

Kyle Diamantas

14%

Sara Brenner

+30 weitere Ergebnisse

CoinRithm-ReferenzKyle Diamantas14%· ±6 Pkt.

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe Liquidität

Gesamtvolumen18.298,8 $

24h-Volumen124 $

POLYMARKET

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

7Mon

Nein

99%

Community-Prognose25 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)

35J

2061 or later

29.2%

2041-2060

19%

2031-2040

12.6%

+12 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose13 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the NIH indirect cost cap stick?

5Mon

Nein

88.6%

11.4%

Community-Prognose6 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?

1.5%5T

2200

+0.2%100%

2300

+5.8%100%

2350

+1.5%80%

+1 weitere Ergebnisse

36 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen55.520,1 $

24h-Volumen563,8 $

POLYMARKET

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

165J

Nein

88%

12%

Community-Prognose127 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

165J

Nein

89%

11%

Community-Prognose61 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

16J

Nein

60%

40%

Community-Prognose188 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

5Mon

Nein

98.8%

1.2%

Community-Prognose44 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

Nein

52.7%

47.3%

Community-Prognose99 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

119J

Nein

89.8%

10.2%

Community-Prognose44 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2026 Ebola epidemic deaths?

5Mon

2000-3999

+3.9%52.9%

4000-5999

+5.0%31%

1000-1999

-3.5%10%

+6 weitere Ergebnisse

Community-Prognose33 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

5Mon

Nein

80.2%

19.8%

Community-Prognose19 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pandemic in 2026?

5Mon

Nein

95%

CoinRithm-Referenz5%· ±2 Pkt.

56 • Mittlere QualitätBreiter SpreadHohe LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen672.799,1 $

24h-Volumen10,5 $

KALSHI

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

0.3%5Mon

Nein

95%

44 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadMittlere LiquiditätNahe an der Auflösung

Gesamtvolumen17.880,1 $

24h-Volumen184 $

POLYMARKET

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

5Mon

Nein

72.2%

27.8%

Community-Prognose17 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

5Mon

Nein

78.2%

21.8%

Community-Prognose14 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

5Mon

Nein

69.4%

30.6%

Community-Prognose26 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 125 years old?

94J

Nein

86.4%

13.6%

Community-Prognose42 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?

5Mon

Nein

90.9%

9.1%

Community-Prognose90 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the death of Elon Musk be ketamine related?

18J

Nein

89.4%

10.6%

Community-Prognose24 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

5Mon

Nein

77.4%

22.6%

Community-Prognose46 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

5Mon

Nein

93%

Community-Prognose21 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

5Mon

Nein

97%

Community-Prognose36 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?

5Mon

Nein

96.6%

3.4%

Community-Prognose20 PrognostikerTyp: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR)?

2.5%3T

<87.5%

+2.5%54%

89%-90.5%

+5.7%49%

90.5%-92%

-1.4%20%

+2 weitere Ergebnisse

36 • Niedrige QualitätBreiter SpreadNiedrige LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit

Gesamtvolumen8213,9 $

24h-Volumen254,1 $

POLYMARKET